If you're thinking this is a good dealat $7.00 - and I imagine the only thing stopping anyone from buying BNK at $7 is that they think they may be able to get it cheaper - imagine what potential buyers are thinking?
At this point, I doubt that a buyer will wait for the thermal results before they make an offer. At $7 it is quite possible that an offer of $9.5 would be accepted by shareholders. Surely worth much more, but not according to this market.
At $9.5 - the price would be just over $2.5B assuming fully diluted (and likely all options would vest in the event of an offer). What would they get for $2.5B.
Current production of 15K bpd and about 360Mof 2P - current netbacks of about $50 (that will probably range between $40-55 over the next 2 years). About $100M in cash, and throwing off about $750K of netback per day. Growing production monthly with a direct line of sight to 20K at YE, and 40K within 2 years. Virtually no debt, but access to $134m if they need it. Reserves growing modestly for now.
Risk - the current view that the world economy is screwed. But then, if true, any investment is pretty much screwed (except shorting or puts - but that doesn't help an operating company). So losing money of a BNK acquisition would be the least of their worries.
Weight that against the risk that the thermal pilot immediately doubles reserves, production goes to 20K per day, and they have another $40M in cash. Thats what they would be facing if they try to buy at YE. I doubt they would get it for less than $12 per share or $3.3B. A hefty premium for waiting until commodities stabilize, and the thermal pilot is successful.
I expect we'll see an offer this month or next unless the share price gets back to above $8 before then. - then the premium for waiting is not as high, and they may wait.