OTCPK:TOUBF - Post by User
Post by
jamesb14on Jun 14, 2011 9:30pm
454 Views
Post# 18715682
Gambling vs investing
Gambling vs investingAs an owner in the company I'm going to have to assume they're innocent as they appear to be acting and reporting ethically.
So I'm looking at the long term upside vs. downside.
Upside
- Likelihood of being proven innocent, say 80%
- Value of the company if innocent, say $25/share
- Gain on fair value of shares at June 30 (end of Q2) if share price is $4.50 or less is $450 million plus
- That equates to an additional $2/share
- volatility will no longer affect reported net income after Q2 2011 (can someone explain why who was on the call?)
- So, the upside in 6-12 months is about $27/share
Downside
-
to $1
So, for a paltry sume like $1000, the impact on my portfolio will be negligible if I'm wrong, but I have an 80% chance of turning it into $8,000+ if I'm right. If I invest $10,000 this is more of a gamble but the upside is $80,000.
It also seems to me that people fundamentally misunderstand the business model. It isn't selling lumber, it's buying forests, seeding them with genetically modified species that are extremely fast growing and selling the treed land to small companies to harvest. That's how they're able to create value, which is a great business model if it's legit.