RE: RE: RE: Some Common Market Misunderstandings..lol. i don't say u will be proven wrong out of fear of my opinion. It is because your statements are incorrect and fear mongering. Let me summarize... 1) u said short SU for years to come. That means that the company fails miserably OR the price of oil goes downward big time... I'll take that bet, notwithstanding a hiccup or two along the way !!!!
2) cycles don't happen for nothing, lol..... they happen because economics repeat ! a real estate cycle occurs because excesses build over time and the market must correct to normal valuation levels based on economics of the economy... the stock market cycles through bull and bear markets for the same reasons... etc.. cycles occur for a reason! the timeline for cycles can vary but some historically many follow patterns... typically recessions in economic charts occur every x number of years, etc... and btw, i'm very wealthy and was self made retired in my 30s from investments --- so much for your assumption/statement of me losing money over the long term, lol !!!!!
lastly on valuation, technical analysis on stocks, the general markets, the gold markets, etc.. levels of support, retracements, etc... are all based on statistical patterns based on fair value... analyst ratings are based on valuation which is the basis of institutional buys and sells... when the S&P is trading at 30+ PE as in the late 80s, a crash is inevitable... when US housing prices is measured against income and credit levels, a crash was inevitable... when US debt continues to climb based on growth of GDP, the fear of inevitable govt debt crisis will also be inevitable, etc... cycles occur because human nature repeats... and that human nature is usually greed... whether irrational exuberance in the stock market, housing market, financial markets and derivatives, etc... or commodity markets...supply demand and when every company jumps on the production/exploration bandwagon it changes those fundamentals so you get a crash until global demand exceeds it and onto the next cycle... its not just by chance!!!
3) financial economy vs real economy? huh... Lehman debacle proved its a global world.. The fear of Greece contagion proves it again. Not sure what you are trying to say but there is no disconnect. the US dollar reserve currency is just that as each country's choice.... in fact, the devaluation is not just chance... it is US economic policy!!! its intentional.. it is the easiest way to alleviate US debt across the globe by making it worth less. the balance is its impact on the domestic economy... and it has been done before... perhaps not to the magnitude that is or will be happening going forward....
YOu seem to write that we are all moronic lemmings and that you are some expert. In fact, you are condescending and factually incorrect in your comments. You are entitled to your opinions, but it just sounds like its out of some theoretical college textbook and not reality...