After watching the webcast this morning and reading over recent posts, I thought I would offer my two cents as to what is going on.
To begin, the purpose of the the coal shipments are not revenue based but logistic based. Take the following from the most recent NR as an example:
"This export to the Republic of Buryatia was avaluable trade for Prophecy as it helps the Company determine localsales logistics, wagon loading times, export requirements and customsprocedures to ensure smooth operations for future coal export of largerquantities."
The same is going to hold true for the following:
"Prophecyis preparing and ordering wagons for the next shipment in July 2011,destined for the port of Sovetskaya Gavani, of which the company hassecured annual capacity of 300,000+ tonnes."
Without these rail shipments, the end user will have little confidence in PCY's ability to deliver coal and PCY will lack important information to better assess costs and timetables when agreeing to supply the same. Hence, I do not foresee any off-take agreement (ie: assuming wagon availability) until after the July rail shipment has been completed and analyzed. How much coal and at what price, as Mr. Lee pointed out, are all moving targets at this juncture. Meanwhile, and well discussed on this board, much depends on the logistics of getting the coal to the end user. Nonetheless, my confidence has grown as to generating revenue in the not too distant future. But I think it will start off slow (ie: like a 20K tonnes a month contract) and build from there as a track record of delivery is established and additional logistic opportunities/means arise.
In a few comments on Chandgana, PCY is proceeding as though they have the permit and necessary licenses already in place. Although one can argue prudence dictates that a Company moves forward on this front while not knowing the final outcome. The impression I'm getting is that Mongolia has indicated the green light where its just a matter of administrative BS and agency sign offs prior to a formal announcement. Hence, I view Chandgana as less than speculative at this juncture.
In a few comments on the metal assets, Mr. Lee indicated a major Chinese company offered $34 million to buy a 30% stake back in 2008. Hence, what is Wellgreen worth today? What will Wellgreen be worth after current drill drilling activity is made known? Why consider colse and swallow drilling activity for next year? Should interest ever be directed to Wellgreen again in the future, PCY has 22 million shares it can sell to a Chinese Company and or that same Chinese Company can take an equity stake in the metal Company.
To close, and world stock market volatility aside, I think coal related stocks will begin the attract investor attention once again toward the end of August. Meanwhile, PCY specific catalysts looks to coincide with this sector rebound. Sometime in August or September, I think we will finally get that long awaited off-take. In late September, the Chandgana feasibility study. In late October, the Chandgana permit. That is, and after a prolonged delay, the ball is starting to move once again.