another prospective on AGGOK - here is my possibly far fetched take on this deal...
I had a decent position and sold it all earlier this year 0.75, more lucky than anything as I am certainly not a trader. I just did'nt like the chart, wanted to increase my cash position as I was scared and I also decided that I would stick with XTG for my African play even though I also sold about 1/3 of that holding.
I have started to repostion at these bargain basement prices. My prospective is that this will be takeover target, and sooner than later. Reasons I beleive this are numerous....
-The shares are relatively loosley held with no entity having greater than a 10% position.
-They are very attractive now that their cap has been cut in half.
-Kinross paid $7 bil for Redback, whose major holdings are also in Mali.
-Thier landholdings in Ghana dwarf those of Keegan
-Keegan has $200 mil in cash and are looking to grow.
I dont want to bash this management group, but clearly they have not been able to get the most out of the markets, other than thier latest financing at 0.70, done at a time when anyone was able to raise money. These guys have been too spread out and as a result, have not been able to focus. They shoud spin off their non-Mali holdings and show some focus.
Again, JMHO, but one has to wonder. Especailly in light of how this deal sold off on such paltry volume. Suppose that KGN had them in thier targets and had accumulated a position that was just below the 10% threashold at which they would have to report. With these weak markets, Keegan could have easily peeled off just a small amount of paper to drive the price down to these low levels. And in this market, once the weak hands see weakness, they will also join the selling frenzy.
Again, JMHO, but AGG is very vulnerable the way that i see it, and they would have a hard time defending against any reasonable offer given thier apparant lack of market savvy.
Anyhow, just musings on this Canada day weekend!
GLTAL
JandD