RE: Bankers Missed Forecasts Last year AlsoObviously JS has a line into the company through someone on the ground. Credit to him.
The new presentation is up on the web. Comparing it to the Mar 31 presentaiton, slight reduction in netback. Key thing is that declines are right in the middle of their modeled range (they model 20-30%) and they are hitting 25%. Long term - they may be ok - and they maintain a production target of 20k for YE.
The shut-ins should have been announced and production estimates for Q2 reduced 2 months ago, when JS and the other shorters found out. There is no excuse for Mgmt withholding this information. I expect the analysts will hammer them hard for this, though it is clear that CIBC knew very well.
How they could not have disposal well capacity is beyond me as is the "shortage" of service rigs. Even with this, the fact that current production is well below Mar 31 production is somewhat baffling.
Thermal pilot won't help them in Q3 - but may have some production late in Q4. Possibly will help them get closer to 20K per day by YE.
I agree that there is no short term positive here and anyone who was holding for a quick buck is out of luck. The YE of 20K is not the really bad news it is the average production they got in Q2 qand will get in Q3 that hurts their ability to increase captial plan. Especially when Brent was absolutley soaring in Q2
As they say. Lucy - you got some 'splaining to do.
I'll be in the air tomorrow morning when the conf call go - but hopefully someone will listen and post some notes.