RE: AlderonOops, I read the first two lines and thought this was a promo for some other stock with Largo name dropping. Then I noticed who posted it and read the whole thing and it mirrors my sentiment exactly. I'm so tempted to buy more at these prices but I'm already very overweight on this one - I guess I'm not alone.
As for a potential global crisis, if it does happen it will most likely be in the next half year if not 2-3 months. Otherwise we'll be talking about a few years out I think. The US finally seems to realize that their debt situation is untenable and I've even starting to hear the dreaded "t" word come up, which is a positive development. I think that they'll get their house in order and start decreasing their deficits and hopefully generating a surplus though that will not be easy and I'm not sure either party has the stomach to do what will be needed to get there. In any case, a crisis now would affect getting JV or funding for CA or ND but since those aren't even factored into the share price and only about half the present value of Maracas IS, there's no good reason our share price should move much from where it is now except for temporary general hysteria and panic.
Two years from now when Maracas is done, if the economy is still terrible, I still believe Largo will be able to ride the storm by virtue of its very low cash cost on vanadium. I said this elsewhere, but a large drop in price and huge increase in supply stability will accelerate battery programs and interest. As it does stabilize they will have two properties with 43-101s just looking for financing/partners, one which should yield iron and titanium and the other tungsten and molybdenum so they're not just tied to vanadium.
On the other hand if the economy is good, I agree that two years from now if not sooner moving over the decimal one spot to the right is quite a reasonable place to be assuming demand and prices are flat from here forward. They won't be but I don't have a crystal ball to say which direction that will take us. On the one hand, if the economy is getting back on track that will mean restored confidence in the US$ and that will mean a 'drop' in commodity prices. On the other hand there are a lot of huge projects already started all over the globe which will need these resources we're talking about to get through to completion. Contrary to public opinion, stimulus and increased spending from industry isn't like going to the store and buying an iPod (a rather instant contribution to the bottom line). These projects take years to ramp up and many of them are fully funded and just starting to build (see: Maracas). In Brazil alone $40 billion dollars will be spent between now and 2015 on new projects by companies like Vale and Petrobras and of course the government.
I think we'll be okay, at least until all this new capacity is online and the projects are wrapping up. Then again, if I could see the future I would hopefully be doing more with myself than trying to forecast economics.