RE: I thinkNo most of junior oil and gas that I have in my portfolio are close to their historical high. For instance look at TAG oil. SP500 has double over the past 2 years. Over the past 18 months TPL lost 50% from 2$ to 1$. TPL clearly underperformed compared to its peers. Why ? Management lack of result (2 years to test a well, problem of testing....) and some dry well. At the beginning they let us dreaming that Doris was 60km2 so around 150MM to 200MM barrels of oil reco. Then few months ago we discovered that their is fault..... so it is a lot more smaller, around 30MM reco.
Dero is dry for now and first zones of Kalypso are dry too. Hopefully we still have last zone to test.......
During that time they raised more than $150MM and they prepare to raise again some money in 1 or 2 months. When you look at TPL CEO he is paid at more than $5 million almost the same salary as the CEO of Shell or Total. Here we have a problem. They just waste or money and dilute us so much. On the top of that all the discovery are in Kazak (very fiscal term) with a very expensive pipeline to build up.
So it is easy to understand why TPL has underperformed so much compared to its peers.
The only positive thing I see is Tajik but it can take many years before we see any reward here.
Now we seem to be breaking the 1$ support. I will buy them again at the next support 0.75$ (or 0.5$ if we break down the 0.75$ support) to play the the tajik asset in the long term.
Good luck to all holders
Julien