Toubani Resources Ltd T.TRE

RE: RE: RE: Realistically speaking...

[markvrd]

TRE has a potentially far more lucrative business model than ONP.   It's in a sector that is bound to have huge demand because the Chinese economy is so resource hungry.   They are very strategically placed as China invests massively in infrastructure, R&D and resource development.   From a scientific side, TRE is pretty advanced in sustainable forest plantation management and does a lot of R&D on this front.   Aside from being well positioned in the market, they should be well positioned to benefit from the PRC's R&D investments in sustainable resource management.

I think it's a different story than ONP and the SP should rebound quickly.    If they're cleared completely, I think the SP will settle in around $15 rather than former highs.   This is because investor confidence will probably be slow to build after this debacle.   Also, they have been forced to slow acquisitions during the PwC audit process which does mean a temporary hit in their business in what's probably a very competitive market.

If the PwC news is really good, what I see happening is a very rapid rise that may take the SP right back to highs temporarily.   Then, reality will set in and I figure the price will settle roughly around $15 and begin a fairly steady rise as things get back to business.   They'll need to ramp up business, regain investor confidence and shake trader loose of the stock.   There will likely need to be measures implement to satisfy ratings folks and investors to ensure more future transparency.   One ramification of this whole thing as well is that the PRC "tax man" will probably be catching up with the BVI companies.    So, I see a spike in SP, followed by a drop to steady levels much higher than today but not at the $25 mark where it once traded -- then a slower progress to new levels.   

How the response to good news plays out on "D-Day" probably depends a lot on what the shorts do over the next few weeks.   If very few manage to cover, there is going to be one heck of a squeeze as big investors get back on board at the same time as 40 million shorts get squeezed.   I suspect that there aren't going to be too many shorts who want to hold out for the big day because of the risk.   As a result, we will probably see some mini-squeezes in between that could be quite rapid.   We'll probably have some dips as well as shorts work hard to create opportunities to cover.   However, I think the trend is going to be upwards unless anything unfolds to suggest that there is substance to the MW claims.

I have no crystal ball obviously and this is all JMHO.

Mark

PS: I think that profile of CB is going to help the stock price on Monday.   We need a green day and I think it's coming.   I was not too impressed by Mr Block's scattered resume and Chinese business acumen running his own business there.   Sounds to me like he's likely moved back to the basement of his parents' condo a few times during his "diverse" career :-).