RE: RE: RE: projection for 2012 profit: $105MOK. Their low estimate is $300M, and my cost estimate is $290M, and the difference is $10M, or approximately
.04 per share, so I am very close with my cost estimate. To get the low numbers for revenues you could use FIU's lower estimates for production and a price of gold for the year of $1375.
105k oz Au from Ezulwini at $1375 = 144M
110k lbs Ur from Ezulwini at $65 = 7M
110k oz Au from MWS at $1375 = 152M
Total low end revenue estimate = $302M
The issue I have with these numbers is that three and a half months into FIU's 2012 fiscal year the price of gold sits at $1600. If you assume that the price of gold will continue to climb at the same rate, then by April 2012 it could be at $2000, so the average price of gold for the year could end up being $1700. If you use the high end estimate for production:
125k oz Au from Ezulwini at $1700 = 212.5M
130k lbs Ur from Ezulwini at $65 = 8.5M
125k oz Au from MWS at $1700 = 212.5M
170k lbs Ur from MWS at $65 = 11M
Total high end revenue estimate = $445M
There's no reason the cost of the mine will increase at the same rate as the price of gold, so my high end figure for profit is 445 - 290 = $155M or 0.75 per share. Given speculation on the future price of gold and future production increases, a 20x p/e valuation could put this stock at $15. On the other hand, all of these respectable financial firms (who cannot go long on gold), say that FIU will earn 0.04 and this makes FIU worth 0.40 per share. At that price, you have to assume low end production numbers, a long term price of gold at $1375, and FIU struggles to exist. It looks like a lot of bad news is already priced into FIU's share price, and FIU's a speculative buy at these prices.