Lightstream Resources Ltd. LSTMF

RE: Nice Lift

[nachochip]

While I agree it is prob short sellers causing most of the increase....Bellatrix-BXE cardium results probably did not hurt.  A few wells that BXe drlled are jv'ed with Petrobakken and PBN has alot of land around BXE land...some of which was aquired through Berens. 

What really puzzles me is why analysts are so negative on PBN cardium.  I don't mind critical analysis but the analysts do not give an explaination on why PBN cardium is bad...only analysis they use is it has to be bad cause of the drop in stock price.  So poor and uninformed analysis on PBN cardium postion.  PBN cardium land cost is a sunk cost...it's done get over it...whether it was high or low...if you bought PBN today the price PBN paid for the cardium land does not matter anymore...it's priced in.  Nobody actually comments on the PBN cardium well performance....it is not that bad...actually really good.  I did an analysis on actual wells tied versus total production and it is really good.
What impresses me about PBN cardium versus other companies is PBN cardium is the most oily have seen..well over 80%.

Out of any PBN guidance...I agree total exit of 46-49K is debatable on whether that will happen...but I have 100% confidence...as long as flood rains till October do not happen...that PBN will easily exit from the cardium at 13k to 16k....should be very doable.  Is 13k to 16k exit that bad for the cardium considering when it was developed???

The biggest mistake people do when analyzing PBN is everyone assumes PBN will keep spending 400 million in the Cardium year after year in the future.  PBN is really not a Q to Q story...it is a year to year story.  While the Cardium really drained PBN last year and this year...ie...capital budget is way higher than cashflow generated in that play....eventually once the Cardium is producing over 16K a day....it will start to contribute inseatd of drain money.
I think this is why Mr Wright was hinting at even a possible divy increase in a few years time....eventually when the Cardium at at 20-25k....it will only need a capital budget of potentially 200M...just to maintain production and match declines versus 400+ million right now in the development stage.
I think 5 years from now...we will all see the price paid for the Cardium land was not too high...I think PBN biggest mistake was trying to develop this Cardium business unit with debt instead of issuing shares when PBN when PBN was 25 bucks.  PBN should have funded the first few years of expensive Cardium development with share issue money versus debt...as investors get their panties in a knot over debt load.