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Aalijii

[GreatSwami]

With free oil in the drilling mud accompanied by good mud gas values - there is almost no chance of the aalijii being "watered out." (The two go together - you cannot have the free oil in the mud without getting a great mud gas show - although in a gas zone you can get the reverse - a great mud gas show and no free oil in the mud).

As to the Kometan and Shiranish - there was really no difference in the behaviour of the test results between the testing of the opne hole below 3,558m and the testing from perforations of the Shiranish/Tanjero interval behind 7" liner. The gas/oil ratios were similar, the oil API gravity from recovered liquids almost identical. Both show light oil with solution gas (no free gas cap). The only difference I could see from the News Release was that the zones tested behind the 7" seemed to behave as if (very) badly damaged by mud and LCM invasion. (Erratic flows).

Only those looking at the detailed pressure and flow charts would really know what they have so far in the Shiranish zones opened up so far and what they may be seeing from the very top of the Kometan. Having only drilled an inferred 10m into the Kometan - they will not be seeing much on any of the wireline logs they ran in the hole after getting to TD at 3,908m. Most of the useful logging tools only begin reading the formation starting a metre or so above bottom (induction tools); 3-6m above bottom, (density and neutron porosity tools); and 8-12m above bottom, (acoustic and Gamma tools). If they have had any rubble falling in the hole - ("fill") they may not have got the logging tools quite to bottom anyway. (Although I'm sure they would have had a try with a clean out trip or two?)

Remember these kinds of wells produce from fractures. The well bore is nearly vertical. The open fractures are nearly vertical for the most part (sub-perpendicular to the bedding plane). The fractures are spaced at various distances apart - occurring in swarms in favourable places and much more sparsely distributed in others. Not all fractures have great connectivity. Some fractures will get plugged by mud products and drill solids during drilling operations and will not unplug easily if they are not well connected to the reservoir. The hole diameter (Bit size) is only 6" (maybe 6 1/8" ?). In 10m of potential Kometan penetration is it a given that they will have had enough of a chance yet to hit any significant fracturing?

There are some simple statistical probabilities that come into play here. By the time they drilled the entire 200-250m planned - it is to be hoped that the well bore will have encountered at least some open fractures. (And not plugged them full of mud and drill solids). There is no way you can tell what may be there without doing a decent acid fracture stimulation to see if there are any nearby good fracture networks. There are many cases of vertical wells drilled through fractured reservoirs where there was no idea at the time that there was even a reservoir there at the time of drilling. (The well simply missed drilling through any of the open fractures!). Many of these plays only became attractive when drilled directionally or horizontally - or when hit with massive fracture stimulation completion attempts.

There are many reasons that last 10m or so of drilling may have lead to a pressure spike (?) - while one of these is the presence of a gas column - the test over the open hole denies that that is in fact the case here. (Same or very similar results with gas and light oil from both the open hole test and the behind pipe testing. The other reasons are often somple mud density transients. Going mud light for one reason or another and then hitting a new fracture with the same pressure as others but the new one giving a slight "kick" while the others were effectively suppressed by heavier mud conditions?

Just thinking out loud here - but it is far from certain that things are quite dead yet. (Although reading the SP trajectory doesn't really give any encouragement?)

Maybe it is just me that has my head buried in the sands of Kurdistan and fails to see the light? I see the light - I am just not convinced yet that it is the headlights of an oncoming (very slow moving) freight train?! But I could simply be the misguided fool some others seem to be convinced I am.

I really would love to see just what happened with the drilling mud as they drilled into and then down through the Shiranish? Knowing whether or not they sustained massive fluid losses or whether they had any really decent drilling breaks, rough torquey drilling, or what the mud gas story showed?

Still shadow boxing in a thick fog here and hoping for the best. (Not a great Investment strategy I fear as many will no doubt point out. I guess the canny simply look at the SP story - assume the Market never lies - and have liquidated and moved on. For them it really does not matter what happens here now - they took their queue from the SP direction and escaped with whatever could be salvaged. But there are a whole lot of new speculators sitting around here like vultures. These are the ones that see opportunity in a battered down cheap stock that with just a little news or effort from manipulators could be used to shake out a few dollars for the nimble.

But there are still many here that see that the game is not yet over - and either we are really really smart - or we are of all people some of the most foolish... Our wives will let us know the verdict on that one LOL! But there really are many reasons that they could have gotten the (poor/disappointing) results they have so far released without it signifying any death knell to the bigger potential. After all it comes down to a reading of really just how good a set of actors the company executives really are? If they think that things are nowhere near as gloomy as the Market has seemed to have concluded from what they as insiders with access to all the information know - either they are deliberately misleading everyone - or they themselves are just as foolish? (Although they still get well rewarded for their efforts - success or failure - they would be much better rewarded with a "win" here!)

Time will tell.

GS