RE: RE: RBC CM previewWhy do you think the distinction between "dividend" and "dividendpolicy" has any relevance to this discussion? Yes, you are splittinghairs.
The distinction is very important. You seem to be implying that the dividend at its current rate is guaranteed to the end of the year. What I am saying is they have reaffirmed their current rate for now based on the dividend policy. That dividend policy makes it very clear and obvious that if the earnings drop so will the dividend (or increase should earnings go up). It also states that they can change the dividend policy at any time if they wish.
That's not splitting hairs, it's a huge difference.
As far as professionals not wanting to look incompetent, forecasts change all the time. That's why many company's don't give forecasts anymore. If their forecast is wrong and they have to decrease the dividend because earnings don't come in where they anticipated, they won't look incompetent because the dividend gets cut. They will be just following the policy. They will of course look somewhat incompetent because they would have forecasted poorly and would appear to not know where their business is heading.
Don't get me wrong, I for one would love to see a strong qtr. I have been taking additional small positions as the price has been falling over the past 6 weeks. I believe this is an oversold story and there will be a rebound (how much remains to be seen). I also have factored in a dividend cut some time in the fall. If it doesn't, great. If it does, great. Either way, I believe at these prices, you can't lose. Of course, I may have to eat my words.
Cheers.