RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: On the Edge with Max KOn the contrary all info I have indicate STP is progressing very well indeed. Firsley you can listen in to the presentation from the 2011 CAPP and Gas Investment forum (see link below). Clearly in that presentatiopn STPs CEO mr Lutes hints they are very pleased with the results and thus the new reserves update related to klast winters core hole drilling.
Then and according to lastest info McKay seems to progress according to plan. Also the earnings seems to be quite qood as they increased their production some 605 in Q2 vs Q2 and expect production at Senlac to continue to progress according to plan for quite many years.
Then also the Read Earth pilot has commenced according to plan it seems in June and I would imagine well hear more about how this progresses as were moving in to fall. But clarly nobody yet has discounted any positive news as of yet fron this project thusb indicating we really here may have a reakky good and quite unecpected upside trigger.
Then from a macro perspective markets in regards to oil seems very tight as analysts now for this year during last quarted anticipates up to $120 per barrel (see earlier posts on this very board regarding this matter) as well as for next year where moste analysts seems to agree well hit $150 and even possibly $170. At these prices and given STPs managements assesement Senlac will produce as expected as well as well gradually start to see Mckay 1 going in to production well that then most certainlöy very good for STPs future earnings.
Markets indeed are a bit choppy as it stands and personally I do beleive we need to see some real evidence of some kind of economic stimulus package, no need to call in Q3 but in fact this it what will happen.
Uncertainty related to the debt cealing also adds to the volatility.
https://www.shpacific.com/index.php?page=presentations
If you have listened to what investor and commodity gury Jim rogers had sad some weeks ago he anticipated shorter term a dollar strengthening (as all then he beleive too firmly where negative on the dollar) but clearly he also said that longer term the dollar is bound for decline as we go along.
Real inflation according to shaddow stats in the US now above 11% and everybody sees huge risk in the bonds markets.
Clearly my strategy is long term hold in STP and accumulate on dips as the one we now see.
So next triggers for STP valuation vice I would imagine would be positive news related to new reserves reporting, reduced execution risk related to STP 1 as were soon entering in to real production as well as maybye something positive nobody has anticipated relevant to Read Earth.
In fact with increased production, oil prices possibly averaging from now on above the $90 level for quite some time a reduced dollar value (reduced lending costs for STP) we may see some very positive overal results going forward as STP will be able to pay of debt and increse earning alla above current expectations.
Shorter term anything can happen. Nuke explotion somewhere, terrorists it seems everywhere, Soros getting shot or whatever. At the same time situation in Libya doesenmt seem to improve indicating difficulty for the oil market related to supply, middle east keep on having outburst of revolutions almost everywhere.
At the same time china is exapanding and as electricity shortage makes them rely to disel engines for elecricity to an ever greater extent their demand for oil seems unstopable. Not mentioning they in that country sell cars like crazy.
Longer term however it seem we really now can anticipate a real and difficult oul supply cruch as early as 2013, only some two years from now and then just about when STP production starts to take of.
Valuation vice longer term and as I said earlier its not gonna be too far before wee see us at and above the $C4 level. Clerly this play now is severely undervalued and thats not going to be the case for ever.
Good luck to all you guys (and girls) and keep on charging.