2014 and beyond outlook2011 cash flow from operations $4/sh less $2 per share in capex leaves us with $2 per share for dividends cash reserve etc. Only $.6 will have been paid thru first half so second half dividend should be better
Enough said.
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Well here goes my perspective in very round numbers for 2014 and beyond
Regardless, using the sensitivities provided by the company on oil prices ($1/bo=$.07 in op. cash flow) and production volume increase of 2 ( 2 million barrels per year at syncrude level = $.13 in op cash flow) I get the following in ~2014
Assuming 350,000 bopd is acheived by then the incremental production will add over $1/ share incash flow
Assuming WTI is $110/bo for 2014 that will add another $1/ share in cash flow.
Last;y the expansion will be done and therby COS capex will be lower by at least another $1/share
So if I am any where near right the 2014 free cash flow after taxes of 25% should be ($4-$1 in capex plus $1 for incremental 50K bopd production and another $1 for the increase in WTI to $110/bo less 25% in taxes) leaves ~ $3.75 per share in annual free cash flow.
It goes withut saying that when they get to 400,000 bopd of SSB that will add another $1/share ( call it.75 after taxes). Longer-term when they add another 200,000 bpd of bitumen that should add another $2/ share.
So all in all this is why I own COS
How do you like them apples?