GREY:CLLZF - Post by User
Comment by
moricon Aug 04, 2011 12:53pm
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Post# 18904333
RE: They will have to shut down again
RE: They will have to shut down again
I think everyone is being a little over dramatic here. Stock price =/= going concern. This coming quarter is going to show Connacher's refinery doing well, as midwest crack spreads have widened from a 3 month average of 15 in Q1 to around 20 in Q2. Recall that most refiners do most of their sales in Q2 - Q3.
Along with this bitumen prices have actually been fairly strong for the Q2 averaging around 70 dollars for 3 months compared to an average of 60 for Q1. Mind you Connacher won't be realizing those prices but they should participate in the appreciation.
On the macro side of things pressure is heating up on Canada to find a new market for their bitumen. As such Canada is pressuring the States to stop screwing around with the Keystone pipeline. If however this pipeline is delayed expect to see more development on the Northern Access pipeline. I expect a Northern Access pipeline to be more bullish for oil sands then Keystone pipeline as it is the primary request China has made before continuing their asset purchase program.
As has been mentioned on this forum before Connacher is currently working on divesting their Hanging stone property and looking for a JV for future projects.