RE: RE: management buys stockIt would be extremely unlikely that ylo would go to 5. The only catalysts that would catapult the stock to 5 or maybe higher in a year would be...
1. the worst quarter has been just released.
2. 360 solution is picking up steam in the next quarter, and after that, propelling the company with actual growth. and the results are on the balance sheet.
3. print declines have relatively stabalized and the decrease in print is negligable compared to the growth of 360
4. their other online businesses are picking up steam
5. paying off more debt than anticipated and give guidance that they will reach their goal of 1x sooner than in 3 years time.
6. management buying (happening now)
7. short covering
8. have 2 repetetive quarters of growth that more than offset the decline in print
9 give updated guidance for earnings and a possible increase in dividends after they get to 1x back to .65 or so
If all of these things were to occur, I think we would probably overshoot to about 7 or 8 dollars, and settle back down to 6. This is definately a tall order and the chances are extremely slim (1 in 50-- my guess)
If 3/4 or so of these points are met, I think we would be at 5 dollars in a year. 1 in 20 my guess
I do think they will probably stabalize around here, and maybe move up to 1.50 if we have seen the worst in the quarters and the print is slightly worse than growth of online. but relatively the same as in even.
If there is growth, even fairly small, I think we would see a decent pop at 2.50-3. because that is the whole question. can we grow or are we going to zero before we can grow.
I would say that eventually if you hold this stock for 3-4 years, you would see it go to atlease 3-4 dollars, They will probably be able to delever the business and have small growth in the future. they will probably raise the div in 3 years a small amount.
Overall its a great risk/reward scenario especially when you see management buying a fair amount of stock. Not only will you get the capital of 2-3X in a few years, but you will get a 18% payout and then when they increase in 3 years (guess) possibly 25% after.
Let's also remember that in accounting, you can also make things seem much worse than what things really are. Because mark has options at 6 and change, he knows that he will not get there anytime soon. because of the short's it drove the stock down even more than normal. Well, why don't they compound it by helping the numbers to give a really bad quarter while hacking the div. The shares tumble, management's blackout has been lifted and guess what? they are picking up the pieces at extremely cheap shares. (if thats the case) I would not doubt it in the least... delay 360's numbers by not accounting for it (not putting the cheques in the bank yet) --just giving a basic example at some tricks they can do and make it legal.
Just some thoughts