RE: speculationPing Pong - good outline.
It would be interesting to see how CGX would match up against previous deals inolving the Jubilee field in Ghana. Assuming Jagaur is similar with respect to Jubilee - what would it be worth to CGX??? I'll take a try...
Example 1:, If I recall correctly, Kosmos agreed to sell its 30.875% interest in The West Cape Three Points Block and its 18% stake in Deepwater Tano Block to Exxon for US $4 Billion. Subsequently, Ghana counteroffered with US $5 Billion!
CGX has 25% of the Georgetown block and 100% interest in the Corentyne Block. If Jaguar comes in as predicted (around 750 MMBO per Tullow) - CGX's Georgetown and Corentyne Blocks (compared to what Kosmos was offered in Ghana) should be worth considerably more than US $4 Billion. Or, considerably more than $25 per CGX share.
Note, Example 1 does not even take into account CGX's Pomeroon and Annex blocks.
Example 2: Recently Tullow bought out EO Group's 3.5% interest in the West Cape Three Points for roughly US $305 Million. Again, assume the Jaguar well comes in and is equivalent to the Jubilee discovery (around 750 MMBO per Tullow) - CGX's 25% stake in Georgetown comparable would be worth US $2.1 Billion. Or, $13.16 per CGX share.
Note, Example 2 does not even take into account CGX's Corentyne, Pomeroon, and Annex blocks.
In summary, if Jaguar comes in - CGX will have many many options to consider. It would be reasonable to assume these options would be similar (in terms of value) to those mentioned above.