Possible Value of CGXOne more example to add from previous post - an extension of Examples 1 & 2:
Example 3: The recent purchase of Tullow buying out EO Group's 3.5% interest in the West Cape Three Points for roughly US $305 Million would suggest: a 1% interest in West Cape Three Points could be valued roughly at US $87 Million.
In similar respects, the offer made by Ghana / Exxon to buy out Kosmos interest in the 30.875% West Cape Three Points Block and its 18% stake in Deepwater Tano Block for US $4-5 Billion (for the calculation we will use the average of $4.5 Billion) would suggest: a 1% interest of in either of these blocks could be valued at US $92 Million.
Looking at both evaluations above it seems the previous Jubilee related offers have been fairly consistent with one another - in terms of what a 1% interest in a Jubilee type discovery would be valued at.
Assuming that both Jaguar and Eagle come in as predicted (equivalent to Jubilee, around 750 MMBO).
Using a calculation of 1% interest = US $87 Million: CGX's 25% interest in Georgetown and 100% interest in Corentyne could be valued at US $10.875 Billion, or $55.83 per CGX share.
So, a CGX SP of $55 is not as far fetched as some may think. Granted, both Jaguar and Eagle will have to either meet or exceed expectations (equivalent to Jubilee, 750 MMBO). The $55 calculation is merely derived from what others were willing to pay in an similar type analog (i.e. buying into Jubilee).
However, to get close to a $55 SP - CGX will have to:
1. Keep / maintain their interest in their Corentyne and Georgetown blocks,
2. Avoid issuing new shares.
If CGX can wait until Jaguar is drilled and evaluated before moving forward with steps 1 & 2 - the better it will be for shareholders (in my opinion).