heavy oil productionIS what the SNV story is based on... So... here's some insight... IN Alberta "cold flow" heavy oil can achieve approx. 6-8% in inital recovery rates...recently a company in Alberta ramped up a cold flow heavy oil field from 3K BOE/D to 30K BOE/D... it took 5 years and they drilled approx 1200-1500 wells to achieve that production do the math and it works out to be abour 20 BOE/D per well on average... failry standard in heavy oil country...MY numbers are ONLY approximate and for general discussion purposes to offer folks some perspective on what SNV is going to be about...
The point being... getting excited about SNV drilling these 3 wells is nonsensical...heavy oil operations take time, capital and infrastructure OF course NOT all heavy oil is created equal... heavy cold flow in Alberta is not the same as "asphalt" in Iraq... the viscosity might be lighter... the porosity might be better... what these 3 wells will do for SNV is provide them some very pertinent data on how to approach THE drilling program to come... these wells are being drilled to answer questions... NOT (initially) to generate revenue...
Of course once the questions are answered it's on to desiging a drill program... probably about this time next year that should be in place...(I may be a bit pessemistic on this point)...
Take away this... over the course of the next 2-3 years this board is going to be flogged by pump n' dumpers...bashers... and every sort of short seller trying to earn a buck on retailer's anxiety and fear... they are going to beat down management, emphasize missed guidance, and call you every sort of name for sticking around... in the end... if you're in now... and pay attention... buy low sell high then get back in... YOU will have plenty of time to de-risk and end up playing with the "houses money" when SNV production warrants a share price near 2-3 bucks
It's MY opinion git yer own.