RE: RE: RE: THIS HAS TO BE SAID!!!!!!I won't pretend to know more than the "broad strokes" about GLD but right from the initial TRR offer they explain how the 40% premium was calculated. They took the average of previous 20 days closing prices for GLD leading up to the offer and added 40%, bringing the offer around .32c, not .28 as you mentioned.
--"Trelawney Mining and Exploration Inc. ("Trelawney" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:TRR)(FRANKFURT:RTW), not including common shares ofAugen currently held by Trelawney, at an implied offer price of
.32per common share (based on the closing price of the common shares ofTrelawney on the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSXV") on July 8, 2011).Under the terms of the Offer, Augen shareholders will be entitled toreceive 0.066 common shares of Trelawney (the "Trelawney Shares") foreach common share of Augen (the "Augen Shares") held.announced today its intention to make a share exchange take-over bid(the "Offer") to acquire all of the outstanding common shares of AugenGold Corp. ("Augen")
The implied offer price represents a premium of 40%relative to the volume-weighted average price of Augen Shares on theTSXV over the last 20 trading day period ended on July 8, 2011, the lasttrading day prior to Trelawney announcing its intention to make theOffer."--
If you look at the previous 20 trading sessions(business days) beginning on or around June 13th to July 8th the average closing price for GLD was .23 cents. If you tack 40% onto that you get .32 just as the offer stated. Of course since TRR was only offering straight shares and no cash that offer is fraught with complications and fluctuations because if the TRR SP drops the value of the offer declines as well. Had they thrown in at least some cash at least that would stabilize the offer a little more but I guess things will have to play out and all the back room negotiations will continue.
Here is the data for the 20 trading sessions that I mentioned above just so you know I'm not totally on crack:
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
| 7/8/2011 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 107,300 |
| 7/7/2011 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.235 | 0.26 | 153,300 |
| 7/6/2011 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 116,000 |
| 7/5/2011 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.215 | 0.23 | 75,000 |
| 7/4/2011 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.215 | 0.215 | 124,200 |
| 6/30/2011 | 0.225 | 0.24 | 0.225 | 0.24 | 98,000 |
| 6/29/2011 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.225 | 0.225 | 10,500 |
| 6/28/2011 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 254,500 |
| 6/27/2011 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.215 | 55,900 |
| 6/24/2011 | 0.22 | 0.245 | 0.22 | 0.245 | 60,700 |
| 6/23/2011 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 55,450 |
| 6/22/2011 | 0.23 | 0.235 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 52,000 |
| 6/21/2011 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 32,250 |
| 6/20/2011 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.235 | 220 |
| 6/17/2011 | 0.205 | 0.235 | 0.205 | 0.235 | 52,100 |
| 6/16/2011 | 0.225 | 0.225 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 51,650 |
| 6/15/2011 | 0.22 | 0.235 | 0.22 | 0.225 | 53,500 |
| 6/14/2011 | 0.205 | 0.235 | 0.205 | 0.22 | 49,807 |
| 6/13/2011 | 0.225 | 0.225 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 306,050 |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | Averag SP | SP + 40% |
| | | | | 0.230 | 0.322 |
So like I said, the stock didn't seem to be really going anywhere until word got out of the offer and then the offer was made. I honestly do hope a happy compromise can be made though. As much as I may offend many people By saying this I really don't feel $1/share for GLD is realistic, as much as Jay Taylor claims they're worth that. "Maybe" down the line but at this current time and place they would be lucky to get .60-70 as far as I'm concerned.
As long as we all make money and TRR doesn't get dragged into the gutter I'm pretty much happy.
Cheers,
Gamblor.