International Tower Hill receives upgraded price tInternational Tower Hill Mines (TSE:ITH)(NYSE-A:THM) received bullish outlooks from analysts at the end of lastweek, on the back of an updated preliminary economic assessment (PEA)for its Livengood gold project near Fairbanks, Alaska - released lastTuesday.
The latest economic report for the project estimated abase case net present value of a whopping $1.2 billion, alongside asignificantly expanded surface mine resource, increasing the miningcompany's potential to become a solid gold producer in North America.
Indeed,Macquarie Equities Research maintained its sector "outperform" ratingfor International Tower Hill and upgraded its price target to $13.5, upfrom the company's last $7.74 trading price on TSX Venture Exchange.
Meanwhile,research peer Dahlman Rose & Co. issued a report noting thepositive development of the PEA and said it is currently in the processof updating its figures to incorporate the new guidance.
Thelatest study evaluated a large, mill-only scenario operating at 91,000tonnes per day, eliminating the heap leach option and requiring initialcapital of US$1.6 billion, including contingency costs.
The elimination of the heap leach option is seen as "de-risking" theproject for Macquarie, as there were potential recovery issues for suchlarge operations in climates similar to Alaska, the firm noted.
Averagegold production from Livengood was forecast at 664,000 ounces per year,at a cash operating cost of US$557 per ounce in the first five years ofproduction.
Over the 23-year life of the operation, goldproduction per year was estimated at 562,000 ounces, making itpotentially one of the largest single gold mines in North America. Thiscompares with the last PEA in August 2010, which estimated averageannual production of 504,000 recovered ounces of gold over 21 years.
Cashflows from the updated mine model, on a pre-tax basis, were calculatedat $3.1 billion, lending to a net present value of $1.2 billion, at a 5%discount rate, and a 14.1% internal rate of return, with a paybackperiod of 4.9 years. The base case scenario, which also yielded alife-of-mine cash cost of $703 per ounce of gold, assumed a gold priceof $1,100 per ounce.
Using the recent sky-high prices of gold at$1,700 per ounce, cash flows jump to more than $10.6 billion, while netpresent value, at the same 5% discount rate, climbs to $5.1 billion.
Asidefrom the robust economics, Macquarie noted that International TowerHill also expanded its resource to over 20 million ounces of gold,converting 18% of the previous indicated resource to the measuredcategory, with only a minor impact on grades and overall tonnage, saidthe research firm. At a 0.3 grams per tonne (g/t) cut-off, measured,indicated and inferred resources total 20.2 million ounces.
Thelatest estimate is limited by existing drilling, the company said,indicating longer-term expansion potential as ongoing drilling extendsthe grid.
"The PEA has provided improved visibility into theeconomic assumptions related to the milling only scenario and thedevelopment path ITH is clearly focused on," explained Macquarie.
"Costsand capital expenditures were generally in line with our assumptions,which is a critical factor considering the low grade nature of thedeposit."
Ongoing metallurgical studies will be focused onoptimizing various unit operations, which is expected to have a furtherpositive impact on project economics.
The production profile forthe economic report estimated surface mine gold production of 15.8million contained ounces, and an average annual recovery rate of 81.6%.
Currently,International Tower Hill is carrying out a 28,000 metre resourceprogram, focused on infill and step out drilling of the deposit to testexpansion potential, both laterally and at depth.
Thepre-feasibility study (PFS) for the Livengood property is expected bymid-November this year, a further catalyst for the company's shareprice. The PFS will be the first step toward the permitting process forthe property, which is expected to be submitted after sufficient data iscollected.
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