TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Post by
Karmanowon Aug 31, 2011 12:25am
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Post# 18996515
Patience Pays Off
Patience Pays OffI think we will be rewarded shortly with news on "positive developments"...when Farhad returns next week from his
4 week overseas trip to Asia...."postive meetings"..."critical meetings"......buckle up...as I think we are going to see one of those "catalysts" we have been waiting for...
Thanks Franky for posting the recent developments with India and their interest in purchasing 20% of Belerus Potash for $6 Billion Dollars....but the interesting part of this deal is that India only gets 50% of their required Potash per year...(2.5 million tons out of the required 6 million tons)....
India will still need over 3 million tons of Potash per year...what to do?
I believe that if India wanted to secure 6 million tons of Potash per year for decades to come...they need to look
at the last postash basin in the world...and it is in Ethiopia....hypothetically speaking....consider (AAA = 2 million tons + FED = 2 million tons + South Boulder = 2 million tons = 6 million tons of potash per year)....at a cost of less than $3 Billion Dollars....and 5 times the share price for all 3 companies...or mutual J/V or longterm Offtake Agreements with financing all 3 mines and processing plants ( total cost of all 3 mines @ $3 billion)....
AAA $1.45 x 5 times = $7.25 per share x 200 m shares outstanding = $1.45 billion total buyout cost
FED
.78 x 5 times = $3.90 per share x 110 m shares outstanding =
.43 billion total buyout cost
STB $2.35 x 5 times = $11.75 per share x 87 m shares outstanding = $1.02 billion total buyout cost
Reading the article Franky posted we can also see how difficult it is going to be for the Indian Government to raise the $6 billion dollars...a wishful deal at best imho....Indian Ag Co's can only raise $1.5 billion...and the Indian Prime Minister states that he hopes that the Banks will come up with the rest?....Do the math...$6 billion dollars to get 2.5 million tons of potash or $3 billion dollars and and get 6 billions tons by either financing or do a buyout and own the Ethiopian Basin.....hmmm... just a thought...interesting math
I also believe we will get a clearly perspective on other developments that could be a game changer for Allana:
Samarian Land Lease expired august 14th, 2011....?
Drilling Results from 12 holes in the East, the Far Eastern Shoreline and Infill Drilling in the south west....?
PEA (preliminary economic assessment) is now half completed to explore Open Pit Mining/Solution Mining options
Karma