RE: RE: RE: RE: SSDDCan't say I was terribly surprised about this NR, TPL doesn't release info that might be interpreted negatively. My hunch is that this is a rather tight reservoir, with low poros and perms. Right now, we can just wait. If you look at the analogue field they mention, you have production rates more in the 3-400 bbl/d average, and many of those fields also have nastier crudes, sulphur and other unpleasant components that drag price down and costs up.
For me, this has always been a bonus, never could understand how First Energy valued this higher than all of the Doris wells combined...
I have lots of thoughts on cash flow going forward, and whether or not TPL will make it into the new year without doing a PP (which they claim twice if you listen to the CC, which I recommend that you do), but I don't have time for that now.
My problem is that I don't trust this management, and I'm concerned that the rail loading terminal will be delayed, and that will be their excuse to do a low ball PP and possibly please some of the people they have royally pissed off since Oct last year.
The only triggers I see short term is good results from Doris-6 (like D-1) and from Tajik, but I doubt that will be enough to lift the SP back above 1 when all the sellers appear again.
TPL has not performed operationally this year, and in a highly risk-adverse market they have paid dearly...problem is, mgnt does not share the loss, instead they get dirt cheap options...
Best,
D