putting it in contextI am in this... for the same reason LOTS of people are in this... it's a multi-bagger because we are in early...
Facts are facts... and it is a fact that a glass of water is half full and half empty... is either outlook wrong?
I'm invested in another ground floor... it's a light sweet play... where the activity is surrounding a vertical well that has produced more than 250 000 barrels of oil impressive? sure... what company wouldn't want a field filled with wells like that??? the FACT IS that production spans... 25 years... which averages to under 30 BOE/day... EVERY WELL ON THE PLANET IS SUBJECT TO DECLINE FROM THE FIRST DAY OF PRODUCTION... So... sell your kool aide to someone who doesn't know any better... every oil field on the planet suffers from diminishing returns... ANYONE can google a wiki article and become an instant expert... MY contention is ... SWY has the potential to spend a billion dollars... on 1000 wells that will produce approx 200K BOE/well over the span of however many years (and that IS a best case scenario (on the pessemtisitc side... each well may only produce 70K BOE/well...) we are talking averages here... IF you are keeping track folks... that best case works out to 200MM barrels of oil (x an average of say... $70.00/BBL = 14 Billion dollars over the lifespan of these hypothetical wells)... at the 70K BOE/well the return is a scant $4.9 billion...
these numbers are JUST very elementary and simplistic...BUT they offer some authenticity based on real world experience.... in order to provide some sense of scale for those that do NOT deal with O&G companies on a daily basis... at first glance you might see my 30 BOE/D as a rather pessemistic number... BUT in context... SNV has a current market cap of about $20MM with the potential to return 3.9 Billion dollars on $1billion of expenditures... and for me that iS the worst case scenario...
HEY that's MY opinion... IF someone thinks that SNV's picture is rosier than that... by all means...lets here why YOU are in this company...