GREY:FTPLF - Post by User
Comment by
belowIVon Sep 16, 2011 11:50am
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Post# 19050325
RE: RE: RE: RE: Is it just me or does anyone else
RE: RE: RE: RE: Is it just me or does anyone elseFFHwatcher1,Respectfully, while I understand the angle you're trying to come from I think an investor is completely nuts to only value the company based on "rearview mirror" cashflow in this case. I think you'd be wiser to do two valuations. One with DP and one without it but then probability weight the valuations to arrive at a current target. In my estimation, the chances of significant delay at this point is very low. I weight the probability of them producing cashflow from Thurso next year as extremely high. Hence my estimate of current value does include future estimations but I'm comfortable with that as I think the chances of being wrong are extremely low.If you build in conservative estimates for DP prices vs. COGS this still produces and incredible upswing in EBITDA.