RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: numbers|?////////////Hi Bucky, yes I did stray from Bob's analysis.
I don't think they need to drill their entire land package to estimate the recoverable gas in place. It's well known that the entire basin has that thick layer of coal down there. Those three wells they have drilled were spaced far away from each other. I'll grant you that they won't classify the 4Tcf as proven/probable 2P reserves based on just three wells. However I do believe the RE will indicate that there is a recoverable resource there in the neighborhood of 4Tcf, how much of that gets classified as 2P reserves I'll leave to the report when it comes.
I don't think Bob assumed in his back of the napkin analysis that TCF.v has 3.46Tcf of gas RECOVERABLE.
No, what I think is that's what the GIIP gas initially in place is for their percentage. If that entire block had 183 Tcf recoverable then Exxon, Chevron and their brothers would be tripping all over themselves trying to get a piece of the action. I think Bob overlooked the recoverability factor in his analysis. Maybe I should send him an email and confirm this. I could be wrong on this but I doubt it. If that 3.46 is RECOVERABLE then TCF.v is a billion dollar company today. And if the entire 183Tcf is considered recoverable then there will be plans by a major to build an LNG facility on Sumatra for export to the rest of Asia, but I don't think that's the situation.
I used 50 cents because while they are signing gas contracts in Sumatra for around $6 kcf, I don't think gas in the ground on that part of Indonesia is worth 83 cents because there is no LNG plant on Sumatra. Now, on the other Island of Kalimantan gas is going for over $9 kcf in which case the undeveloped gas in the ground would be worth 83 cents or more. Kalimantan gas gets a higher price because there is an LNG facility there that then ships the LNG to Japan, China, India, South Korea etc. Those countries are paying $20kcf to import that gas. And there is a shortage of gas on Kalimantan for the operators there to fulfill their LNG quotas. The NG fields on Kalimantan have been depleting so there is excess plant capacity now which TCF.v can begin supplying when they get their Kalimantan field producing.