re: WND fundamental updateI am reposting my earling posting, this time with a better lay-out (did not know what went wrong that time), it should make it a much easier read. The content did not change, except the part regarding the price action but this has no fundamental impact, on the contrary, should provide opportunities for new investors and/or existing ones.
btw, I still agree that the risk/reward relationship is many times in favor of buying the stock than selling it. for downward potential we are speaking of 10, 20cents at max (??) while possible returns are a multiple of today.
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=30207636&l=0&r=0&s=WND&t=LIST
Much value is hidden in the WND Stock, and this was about to be unlocked in the coming 6 to 9 months. Today’s important PR is putting things forward with 2 a 3 months. Price action is not taking into account any of the upside potential while downside in the stock is negligible.
https://www.westernwindenergy.com/s/News_Releases.asp?ReportID=480342&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Windstar-Update-80-of-Project-Now-Complete
Summer may have been very quiet for the WND stock, the workings on the Windstar project went much faster than expected. At the end of June, the important Windstar project was projected to be completed for only 82% by year end. [the 82% completion was a very conservative management estimate]. New project estimations are going for a full up and running of Windstar before Christmas eve. Btw, Windstar got behind schedule earlier this year due to “heavy wind conditions”, ain’t this positive? (too much wind there).Going into details, it is very hard to understand/belief the mispricing of the company. I’ll give it a try:
+ 30% cash grant coming in above expectations ($108M for both Windstar/Kingman), and this cash grant more than offsets Rabo $55M&RMT $15M bridge loan for Windstar. At the end of June, WND had room left on both bridge loans and on the long term financing. Taking into account cash grant against bridge loan, WND will finish the Windstar project with a significant $M surplus cash at hand.
+ Windstar project will be fully eligible for the 100% Bonus Depreciation. WND will be able to sell 100% of the capital expenditures to e.g. a “Lifeco” or an “Oilco”. With cash flow and project completion secure, WND will be able to negotiate better terms as they are not a “forced seller”. Due to the high degree of variables on this matter, it is difficult to paste a number on this projection but we are speaking about capital expenditures on a “$300M project”. Market does not understand this.
+ Windstar attributing to revenues in 2011Q4. Market consensus dictates that estimated gross revenues on Windstar-only are in region of $41M-$42M a year. Market consensus is set for a free cash flow of $12M a year for Windstar (with thanks to general accepted estimations of Mr Casse, ex-LOM and currently IR). But this $12M could undershoot the true free cash flow (Loan, interest&principles on 205M,21yrs,7.25% fixed equals $-19M/year, maintenance agreement with Gamesa $-3M/year (on average), …). WND is also carrying a $-30M accumulated deficit so Uncle Sam has to wait to collect his taxes…
The current stock price is far from right pricing in the Windstar-project. But WND is more than Windstar.What to be expected the coming months
- Yabucoa (30MW solar): final permits, financing and start project – will be eligible for 30% cash grant
- Receive of $ 10M cash grant Kingman around end nov/early dec
- 2011Q4 : outcome around repowering Mesa II
- 2011Q4 : approval to upgrade Kingman II before year end
- 2011/12 : Windstar completion
- Early 2012 migrate from CVE to Toronto exchange
- 2012 : sale of capital depreciation
- 100% bonus depreciation Windstar/KIngman
- 2012Q1 – $99M cash grant receive from US Treasury/Department of Energy (DoE) Windstar
- 2012 : Yabucoa up and running
Previous months may have been a test for some shareholders. Unfortunately, a 120MW wind energy farm is not built in an “easy-to-go-3months”. With management staying within the deadlines (doing better), they will gain market confidence and WND is very well placed for the upgrade of existing projects and more importantly new longer term projects.
E.g. some potential longer term projects:
- Windswept, 30MW
- Snowflake, 200Mw
- Barstow, 100MW
Conclusion. If we read today’s PR right. Windstar is going to completed before schedule and costing less than expected. With cash at hand after completion of Kingman/Windstar, WND is building up a portfolio of projects and becoming a power house not only limited to wind energy. Some existing projects have the potential for an upgrade on short(er) term, but more importantly the company has multiple long term projects with potential. With management gaining on track record, the current stock level is valuing nor the current Windstar $$$-project, nor the longer term prospects.
Price action wise. Volume traded in this stock has decreased to an absolute minimum. There may be have been no buyers today, more importantly there are hardly any sellers. Any spark of buying will lift the share to new highs. While earlier this year, the stock had to sustain some selling pressure at the $c1.50 lvl due to the conversion of broker warrants. These broker houses were forced sellers and in a need to get rid of them. The company cashed in and the shares found some strong hands. The current downtrend since June is about to end, break of $c1.42 would be only a minor step.Open for questionsDisclaimer. Long WND since a year, and very happy to add some today (my gratitude for the seller !!!)
Trappist