RE: DarcylawIt's busy times, and with this horrible market I try to focus my energy elsewhere. I do check in here from time to time, but it has been pretty quiet lately.
Except from today, I think TPL has held up fairly well, compared to other stocks. The AKD06 info was recieved well (as it should, this was positive news) and the stock was up quite a lot that day in down markets if I remember correctly.
Honestly, I can't understand why you still focus so much on where WTI is? TPL doesn't deliver their oil at Cushing, but at well head in far off Kazakhstan last time I checked...
To be very clear, there is NO LINK between WTI and what TPL recieves. Up until August, they got a fixed 25 USD/bbl at well head, then someone else took the crude to a refinery. With the phase 2 faciliites up and running, TPL will be able to delivered treated crude, and this will fetch a higher price, exactly what it is has not been shared with the market, but my guess is somewhere around 30 USD (also fixed).
Even if Robson wanted to do a PP at this level (which I very much doubt he does) I don't think he could...seriously, have you looked outside the window? The world is falling apart...
The best Robson et al can do now is focus on delivering the rail loading terminal, increase production and cut down on all unnecessary spending (not their best trade, I know...).
I'm fairly confident that AKD06 will come in nicely, it's located in the same structure as AKD01, and I can't think of any reason why it should not behave in a similar matter.
I'm more curious about the Tajik well, if that flows nicely, maybe we can get a small uptick before the bear market slams us down again...
I'm not selling, but I'm not buying either, I want to see the production ramp up first, that is priority 1,2 and 3.
Best,
D