the PR is highly positiveO&G111
You're incorrect. Mechanical problems don't cause a lower probablility of successful flow rate. If they went in there and drilled it with heavy overpressured mud, etc then that would be different. In fact if you read the PR closely they note
"a mechanical earth model was constructed with very positive indications for the ability to fracture stimulate Baldwin-2Hst1. Fractures developed in the vertical plane of the well, transverse to the horizontal well path, are predicted by the model, with excellent containment indicated from the bounding layers both above and below the possible pay zone. In addition, natural fractures were observed"
and
"X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis has shown little presence in samples of clay minerals often associated with sensitivity to water-based frac fluids. The XRD results, combined with further confirmation in laboratory sensitivity tests, have given PetroFrontier the confidence to fracture stimulate with water, which is an important factor in keeping the stimulation costs as low as possible."
and this is highly positive. In my opinion a lot of risk has been taken off the table in the sense of mechanical nature of the rock. The gas and oil shows through the whole section of the shale is highly encouraging. We now need to wait for the flow test, and that will be the next step in evaluating the well at this stage.