GREY:FTPLF - Post by User
Post by
belowIVon Oct 11, 2011 11:08pm
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Post# 19139616
So what is it worth?
So what is it worth? Summary of Video:1) Thurso shutdown for conversion to DP. Should begin November 7th.2) Spot prices are currently $1650 - $1700 for DP and rising.3) All in cost delivered to Shanghai is in the low $600's once the Cogen facility is built out.4) At current prices that produces about $1000 EBITDA/ton.5) Capacity is 200,000 tons => therefore runrate EBITDA of $200M from Thurso6) Only a handful of mills are actually suited for conversion, worldwide.7) Intending to conclude a couple more acquisitions in the next 6-9 months.______________________________So, just for shits and giggles:Dresden should do about $26M EBITDA in 2012 and I'll assign a 5.5X multiple to this businessLandquart should do about $13M EBITDA in 2012 and I'll assign a 8.5X multiple to this businessAs per above if conditions hold, Thurso will produce normalized EBITDA of $200M. But the co gen isn't up and running yet and there is bound to be some hiccups getting to capacity. So, accounting for a ramp up of production and higher expenses due to no co gen facility I'll knock off 10% and suggest a annual 2012 EBITDA target of $180M. I'll assign a 6X multiple for this business.Sum of the parts using 14.292M sharesDresden: Value of $10/shareLandquart: Value of $7.75/shareThurso: Value of $75/shareSum = $92.75___________________________________A more conservative model would be to use the floor price of $1200/ton in your projections instead of using the spot price. The value of Thurso would become closer to $45 and reduce the sum to about $62.75.This is how I did my original work but I believe I may be too conservative. The exodus of future oncoming supply has seemingly put a bottom in play at around $1600.Then, if you take Chad's comment from today that he is "intending on concluding" a couple more deals in the next 6-9months ... the value may be substantially understated should he be successful. Normally, I wouldn't value "intents to conclude" but Chad has proven to be one of the best capital allocators that I've seen. Just review the progression of this business. I believe that Chad is close to closing on at least one more mill based on current newspaper items highlighted on this board.This is as good of an opportunity as I've seen since 2009.