TSXV:ART.H - Post by User
Comment by
eagle35on Oct 12, 2011 4:38pm
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Post# 19142959
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: NIKO "..cost of all op
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: NIKO "..cost of all opWe view Vast Exploration as offering one of the highest potential exploration
rewards within Kurdistan, but it remains highly speculative given its pure wildcat
exploration base. In our opinion, Vast carries significant prospective upside as it
chases large oil targets (>1.7 billion barrels of OOIP) on the Qara Dagh (Black
Mountain) Block, where it holds a 37% non-operated working interest. The Qara Dagh
Block is operated by Niko Resources. Vast trades on the TSX Venture Exchange under
the symbol VST and reports its financial results in C$ in accordance with Cdn GAAP.
Business Mix (Based on revenues unless otherwise noted)
Exploration; Kurdistan
Performance Drivers
Exploration success, political events in Kurdistan, crude oil prices
Comparable Companies (TSX unless otherwise noted)
WZR, SNM, LFD, HOC, GKP, DNO
.Recent Update Text as of 29SEP11 Vast’s testing of the Shiranish formation within its Qara Dagh-1 well has beencompleted, the end result being a tight reservoir that failed to flow
commercial rates, which we anticipate could send the stock lower in the near
.term. We have downgraded our rating on Vast Exploration to 3-Sector Underperform(previously 2-Sector Perform) and have reduced our one-year target price to
.10 (from
.30) per share based on our revised risked NAVPS estimate of
.
.12 (vs.
.30). The downgrade is based on our view that it will be increasingly difficult toraise the required funds for its next exploration well (Qara Dagh-2) in late
2012, which could dilute shareholders or require farming out a material portion
.of its interest in the block (dilutive to NAV). The lack of flow rates, uncertainty around funding, and no material explorationnews for potentially 12 months leaves us cautious toward the name today. That
said, we recognize the well did have oil shows in the Shiranish, but failed to
reach its primary objective in the Qamchuqa/Kometan. As such, we could see
ourselves becoming more bullish as funding is resolved and as drilling of the
next well nears. Gavin Wylie (Scotia