GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Comment by
nachochipon Oct 14, 2011 12:37pm
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Post# 19149798
RE: RE: Swan Hills land position?
RE: RE: Swan Hills land position?Hey Really?, a rig count decrease is probably coming because they drilled so much in some core areas in the Q3 that they to not need as many rigs going to meet the yearly budgeted drilled wells. Ex...from Q2 to Q3 in Cardium..they went from 41 wells drilled to 73 wells...if they keep up same rig count that would be over the 90 wells budgeted for this play. So fur sure a rig count decrease is coming, but that is because they will have reached their target....to drill the remaining 17 wells in Cardium in Q4..instead of 8 rigs...4 rigs can easily do this.
Getting the wells drilled will not be the problem...need 13 more in conventional and 22 more in Bakken...those are shallower and do not take many days to drill....PBN does not need a rig count of 16-18 drilling rigs cause they will go way over budget on wells drilled.
The risk here is not whether PBN will have wells the drilled...it is operational risk in if they can get the wells all tied in, in time. How can they meet exit production...well...they had 24.5 cardium wells drilled but not tied in as of early October....get this wells tied in is how they meet guidance. They need to be focusing more time and capital towards tieing wells in than drilling at this point.
I love how people bring up HR issues facing energy companies. This is my question to you, where the f**ck are people supposed to go to and work for if they leave PBN, especially in Alberta? Wait till FY 12 capex are released by alot of senior natural gas wieghted companies.....going to be bleak..especially in some parts of BC and Northern Alberta...some consultants will be scrambling for jobs. 3.50 ng prices and you think PBN will not be able to find staff? lol, okay. Already heard a rumor Encana is scaling back their BC drilling program in FY12 and contract workers and consultants are scrambling to find work with Pen West and others for FY12.
Without strong NG prices...never will be a talent shortage....THAT IS A FACT.