ARHT Media Inc V.ART.H

RE: Buyout 300 million?

[Aton]

Take a look at Vallares/ Genel: 

Taxdemicco (about Longford) 
Hello Everyone:

We know that Genel sold its 7 oil fields to Vallares for what I think I read was $ 2.2 billion.   I have not read the other agreements in which Genel was involved in, but I must assume that PSC contracts were of similar nature.

Genel held a 40% share together with sister Petroil, I believe, not 100% sure.  If we assume that similar terms existed on other PSC contracts it means that Vallares paid $ 314 million per PSC contract which contains a 40% share.

We know the Kurds own 20% and this is not for sale.

Longford holds the other 40% and they just witnessed Vallares value the Genel/Petroil land position at $ 314 million.

As a rule of thumb little investors know very clearly that MAJOR FIRMS likeVallares and Sinopec want CONTROL.   This is why Vallares acquired not one but all 7 fields joined in by Sinopec.

Since Vallares wants control, it reasons that Vallares will want Longfords land position too since leaving it as such means that Longford controls and not them.   Vallares does not spend $ 2 billion to give others control.

Hence comes the negotiations.   Who needs to drill really?   The whole landscape has changed in Kurds land.   Longford probably was only going to drill a few holes to hit a major discovery and then sell out like management did in Desert Sun.

It appears that the change of events has given rise to an unexpected situation where the issue is no longer just drilling the one hole but getting the best deal for its shareholders.

Longford is playing hardball.   If they have too, they will do private financing themselves but they will not lose PSC contract and they know that these MAJORS PLAYERS want in.

My hunch is that Vallares got Genel and Petroil out the way.   It is a matter of time before Longford goes the similar route.

A price of $ 314 million would mean that Longford 40% share is valued at about $ 2 per share.

Those getting in now, can expect a bidding war to develop if Sinopec suddenly decides they want it all themselves.

Just my Honest Opinion of course