GREY:ARGEF - Post by User
Comment by
MolyMadeMeRichon Oct 21, 2011 12:35am
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Post# 19169125
RE: Not Certain!
RE: Not Certain!No Chance...RGX has a target of $31 ..Producing by 2013...You should due some DD and buy RGX not Happy trails...GLTA...
MMM$ARGEX MINING INC.
RGX-TSX.V :
.47 - STRONG BUY
12 MONTH TARGET PRICE INCREASED: $3.00 | PROJECTED RETURN: 538%
VALUATION: 20% DISCOUNT APPLIED ONLY TO NAV OF LA BLACHE PROJECT.
CTL AGREEMENT SIGNED
EVENT – CANADA TITANIUM (CTL) AGREEMENT SIGNED
Today’s news release is a big and essential step in Argex’s plan to become a fully integratedproducer of high-grade titanium dioxide by 2013 and its planned expansion to becoming asupplier of 10% of the world’s TiO2 by 2020.
INVESTMENT OPINION – RE-ITERATE STRONG BUY.
TARGET INCREASED TO $3.00 PER SHARE
The Company plans to start production at a rate of 15,000 tonnes per year of TiO2 in 2013with an industrial size test plant and to ramp this up to 600,000 tonnes of TiO2 by the year2020. At that rate Argex would be supplying 10% of the world’s TiO2 market.
The critical factors for future value:
Near-term completion of planned acquisition of Canada Titanium Ltd (CTL)
Completion of NI-43-101 PEA and possibly a pre-feasibility study this fall
Completion of permitting
Announcement of product sales or off-take agreements or joint venturesFunding. - Exercise of Warrants could fund short-term needs:
o 10.7 million
.40 warrants expire Oct 29, 2011
o 0.7 million
.40 warrants expire Nov 30, 2011
o 0.16 million
.40 warrants expire Dec 22, 2011Future prices of TiO2, V2O5 and iron ore
Construction of a 15,000 tpy industrial scale TiO2 recovery plantSuccessful start-up of an industrial plant to prove scalability in 2013
The most important remaining factor of the above is successful scalability.
ACTION – A MULTI-BAGGER IN THE MAKING
In a worst-case scenario, Argex at
.47, has the potential to be a “Four Bagger”, whilebeing simultaneously a perpetual call option on the successful scalability of the TiO2
processing plant where the reward could be a “Sixty Five Bagger” as the process is de-risked
and the NPV discount rate drops to 10% pushing its value to $31 per share. The biggest part
of the stock price move should be between now and 2013 as the first plant starts operating
successfully. We recommend investors aggressively build or add to a position in Argex at current levels.
VALUATION – PROJECT NPV SUGGESTS SHARES ARE CHEAP
The Company’s long- term plan to produce 600,000 tpy TiO2 by 2020 is achievableand would result today in the following after-tax NPVs of forecast cash-flow solely
from Argex’s own production through the end of the next decade.Discount Rate NPV Per Share*
10% $ 3.6 Billion $31
15% $ 2.0 Billion $17
20% $ 1.1 Billion $10
*Assumes additional 30 million shares
Tony Hayes, CFA, Metals & Mining Specialist
tony.hayes@europac.ca
MARKET DATA (as of Sept27, 2011)
Market Capitalization ($M) 42Current Net Debt ($M) -2Enterprise Value ($M) 40Basic S/O (M) 88.7Fully Diluted S/O (M) 145Avg Daily Volume (3mo, k) 13952 Week Range ($) 0.24 - 0.92KEY FINANCIAL METRICS
FY-Dec 31 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Rev. (US$M) 0 38 80.0 392
Change --- --- --- ---
EV/S n/a 0.8 0.4 0.1
EBITDA (US$M) 0 29 67.0 331
Change --- --- --- ---
EV/EBITDA n/a 1.0 0.4 0.1
Quarterly EPS (US$) (adj)
Quarter 1 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.60
Quarter 2 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.60
Quarter 3 0.00 0.16 0.17 0.65
Quarter 4 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.85
F.Y. Total 0.00 0.32 0.65 2.70
Change --- --- --- ---
P/E n/a 1.5 0.7 0.2
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Argex is in transition from a successful exploration
company with titanium, iron and vanadium properties to
a development and producing company with a
51% interest Canada Titanium Ltd. which has some
very promising, low-cost, patented and proprietary
technology for the recovery of T iO2, V2O5 and Iron.
KEY RISKS – ABOVE AVERAGE
Inability to scale process
UPCOMING EVENTS/CATALYSTS
NI-43-101 PEA and possibly pre-feasibility study this fall
News on possible spinout o nf on-core Mouchalaganeiron ore property could come soon.
Source: BigCharts.com
Argex Mining Incorporated
Tony Hayes, CFA, Metals & Mining Specialist
416-433-3357 416-433-3357
tony.hayes@europac.ca