TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
Karmanowon Oct 24, 2011 11:42pm
427 Views
Post# 19177967
RE: RE: RE: BNN + KRN
RE: RE: RE: BNN + KRNfiddle, from my earlier post I tried to share with you that it is not likely that Karnalyte will maintain a share price of $16 per share with a plan to do a 60%debt and 40% equity share offer. They plan to ramp up to 2 million tons of KCL per year...so does Allana....they will end up with at minimum 85 million shares...allana will have 200 million shares with debt financing, joint venture financing and or offtake agreement paid back through production.
So, all things considered equal, why would Karnalyte get a valuation of ( 85 million shares x $16 = market cap of $1.36 BILLION) and Allana get a valuation of ( 200 million shares x
.92 = market cap $184 million) ?...
fiddle the numbers just do not add up...2 million tons produced each year by both companies....but one gets a valuation that is 7 times greater than the other??? I think when all the dots are connected and the matrix and math formulas are applied...more sober minds will prevail.....my thinking tells me that share dilution will put stress on the share price.
Karnalyte has a great deposit...and now has her papers to prove it...but $2 billion dollars of capex in this market is not good...and as said before...I would not want to be in a market like Sask. where plans are underway to expand 30% of global potash production over the next 5 years...please remember, Brazil is on record as stating..that it wants to be self sufficient with fertilizers within 10 years...and China is investing into Kazakstan where there is over 5 billion tons of potash reserves...Where do you think all this planned Sask. potash is going to be shipped to?...depending on your answer...your long term investment in a Sask. junior waiting for a sugar daddy with deep pockets is more of a risk than anything Ethiopia has to offer as risk...I pick Ethiopia and what I believe is likely coming our way from India and or a Joint Venture....
By Christmas we should double our measured and indicated resource...and have the PEA completed and tell us all whether we can open pitt mine the shallow sylvinite layers...
It only gets better from here...as max said...back up...when she blows you may have to grab onto a horn or miss the ride....
Karma
$2.0 BILLION to get to 2 million ton per year facility is over twice that of Allana's proposed $800 million.
$1.0 billion as debt and $1.0 billion as share offer = 23 million shares plus 62 million shares issued at $16 per share = a total of 85 million shares outstanding at time of production.