A few thingsLast time I posted on this board was a few months back and I was musing how the MM's have been able to clean this thing out twice up to $1.50 and then still keep her from breaking out. Funny in that its usually the mm's themselves who represent the bulk of the buyig when the breakout finally happens since they know the market so well and realize that the paper is completely all gone... In a typical breakout we should move up about 35%, and then back off a little and find a new home - key here is that the old highs now have to form the new support.... But that is just technical crap, and those of us who have been following smell something unusual this time.. Why the obvious volume surge over the past 5 sessions?
Discussing a possible take-out, I would bet anyone that Batista already has a position. he has had all kinds of sweet and inexpensive opportunities as this deal like all others has been smashed by the irrational sentiment towards smallcaps, particularley gold juniors, allowing any wanna be suitor to step up to the plate in cognito and gather a 9% position. I mean this stock should have broken out on the last big volume surge and it was amazing that so many sheets were cleaned out and she never broke. Triple top breaouts are always beauties. That said, even if accumulation was easier than anticipated, Mr Batista would never go over the 10% threshhold which is when you have to announce that you are an insider.
Im not saying Batista has 9.9%, or even 5%,but it would be preposterous to assume that he has none. There are many other factors to consider such as:
-Poison pills only work if there is one suitor. Once a second suitor/white knight comes along, the poison pill is no longer relevant.
-If they have been up for sale as mentioned by Chalandra, that might imply that thier data room was open. If this were the case, any big boys that came in to have a good look at thier holdings would always have to signa CA and a standstill clause - a clause that would prevent them from buying in the open market for usually 18 months. This would not preclude the big boy from making an offer, but it just does not allow them to be sneaky and grab a nice poistion in the market before they make thier first offer for takeover.
-Recent annoncements about Iamgold undertaking financings with BHV and CLB represent very naive management groups at these 2 juniors IMHO. Once you allow a big boy to get that first 10%, you can never have a clean bidding process, there are warts on it to begin with. This is a big plus for GWY and its one of the main reasons I am here - There is no senior entity that owns a significant chunk of us, which means we can truly go into play and eveyone (all the potentail suitors) has a fair shot.
The big boyz were cut out of Ventana as Batista came out of left field. He also probably paid more than the big boyz would have, but thats another story.
Another very interesting point, as noted by another poster is that why the announcemnt of the super agressive drill program all of a sudden? That is exactly what you do when you think you are gonna go into play - you dont want to leave any stones unturned so you drill the sh*t out of any prospective zone. Don't leave the suitor with too much blue-sky!! Even if they are not snuffed out, all of this agressive drilling will allow them to show up a larger resource when they complete thier first 43-101 resource estimates on both California and Veta , with more in the indicated category and less in hte inferred zone. That said, I dont like it when companies get pressure to put out a 43-101. Look what just happened when ATC put out thier first report on the Tiger zone - it kiled the stock, yet the Tiger zone is not really that interesting when you look at the big picture with Atac. If GWY's 43-101 does not poove up at least 2 million oz, we will get hammered. That's the risk..
Anyhow, just late night rambligs - I am in this till at least the 2nd offer. he he Never sell out to the first bid.
Jandd
Many of the large Caps will send their staff in and sign a CA,
by the meltdown in the juniors, and in