NYT - Former Prime Minister Set to Win Kyrgyzstan
Published: October 31, 2011
BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan — Former Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev was setto win a presidential election in this strategically important CentralAsian nation with more than 63 percent of the vote, the Central ElectionCommission reported Monday. He had been widely tipped as thefrontrunner.
Voters went to the polls on Sunday, seeking an end to years of politicalturmoil, though some said they feared the vote could expose theregional and ethnic divisions that nearly tore the country apart lastyear.
It was the first presidential election since the bloody ouster in April 2010 of Kyrgyzstan’s authoritarian leader, Kurmanbek S. Bakiyev. That was followed by an explosion of violence between ethnic Kyrgyz and minority Uzbeks in the south of the country that led to nearly 500 deaths.
In the year and a half since, there have been no other major outbreaksof violence, though people in this former Soviet republic of about fivemillion remain on edge.
“There is calm, yes, but it is not clear how long it will last,” saidKalia Kalchanbayeva, 53, who was selling cookies outside a polling placehere in Bishkek, the capital, on Sunday. “What we need now is quiet.”
Like others across the political spectrum, Mr. Atambayev is seen as asupporter of closer ties with Moscow, including membership of aRussian-led customs union that already includes Belarus and Kazakhstan.Mr. Atambayev, who was prime minister until stepping down in Septemberto concentrate on his campaign, even sponsored a bill this year naming amountain in Kyrgyzstan after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin.
Much of the Kyrgyz elite, even those seen as strongly pro-Western, seemsto believe that the country has little choice but to cast its lot with Russia.Many are suspicious of growing Chinese influence in the region. Butperhaps more important, they fear abandonment by the United States.
The American military base at Manasairport, near Bishkek, is crucial to supplying NATO forces inAfghanistan and is a big source of revenue for the Kyrgyz government.The lease on the base ends in 2014, the same year President Obama hasvowed to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, a prospect viewed withforeboding by some here.
“We will without a doubt move in the direction of the customs union and probably also the Eurasian Union,” said Roza Otunbayeva,who will step down as caretaker president at the end of the year. ”Theexit of NATO forces in 2014 leaves us no other choice if we want topreserve our security.”
Tens of thousands of Kyrgyz migrants work in Russia, sending money back to families at home.
The election on Sunday was closely by international observers, particularly from the United States and Russia, both of which maintain military bases in Kyrgyzstan.
Across Bishkek, election billboards offered promises of stability andrenewed hope for the future, but at some polling places on Sunday, menin camouflage stood guard cradling assault rifles.
Observers say many Kyrgyz have grown cynical after years of politicaland social upheaval, and have little trust in the authorities.
“People are tired of protests; they do not want any more blood,” Mr.Atambayev said outside a polling place. “We’ve already had enoughrevolution. It’s time to work.”
Russia, which has backed particular Kyrgyz leaders in the past, played a less visible role in this election.
Rather, the vote came to underscore traditional rivalries between northand south Kyrgyzstan. Mr. Atambayev, a northerner, faced stiffcompetition from two candidates from the south, including a former boxerknown for getting into fistfights as a member of Parliament. Severalcandidates on Sunday vowed to reject results they consideredillegitimate, prompting fears of future protests.
Independent analysts said they expected electoral violations to beminimal. The authorities raised eyebrows by banning local cable stationsfrom broadcasting foreign channels like CNN and the BBC as the electionapproached. And they put Russian channels, which many Kyrgyz rely onfor their news, on an hour delay. Officials said they wanted to preventforeign intervention in the vote.
Still, in a region long dominated by authoritarian leaders, Sunday’selection was remarkable in that the outcome was not generally knownbeforehand. More than 80 candidates had declared their intentions to runin the election, though that number shrank to 16 by Election Day.
Since the violence last year, a caretaker government led by Ms.Otunbayeva has ushered in reforms intended to prevent future discord,including watering down the president’s powers and creating CentralAsia’s first parliamentary republic.
There are now five political factions represented in the Parliament, apower-sharing arrangement that many here hope will allow Kyrgyzstan tocurb the often-violent political rivalries of the past.
Ms. Otunbayeva has vowed to step down at the end of the year, making herthe first leader in Kyrgyzstan, and in all of former Soviet CentralAsia for that matter, to leave power voluntarily since the Sovietcollapse. Armed mobs drove both of her predecessors out of the country.
Some, however, are unhappy to see Ms. Otunbayeva go.
“I am so happy that we had this woman take this large burden upon hershoulders at a time when all the men were frightened to do so,” saidIshen Dzhangadiyev, a 55-year-old teacher. “She created stability, eventhough there were those who did not want it.”