RE: RE: RE: M D & ACrotch,
You raise some interesting points and I can't answer them but only theorize.
I'll assume production costs are the same for the Mirador as any other reservoir.
I would ask if CNE is producing from the Mirador on any given well can they also simultaneously produce from any other reservoir or is this in fact a restriction of capability in measuring specifically that tariff production?
I can see a well producing from many reservoirs simultaneously while blocking the Mirador but can one produce from any other reservoir while allowing the Mirador to flow?
Hoarding? Never occured to me and I can't understand why CNE would be hoarding the non tariff oil?
My view from 10,000 ft is that Colombia has no more available blocks to bid on...there are to many small producers that will inevitably fail...companies like Canacol can only increase production thru farm-ins and takeovers......one needs as much operating cash as soon as possible to ensure not only survival but growth. Put money to work.
All good reasons to not Hoard!
I predict more takeovers as the new wave of production in Colombia matures.
The only way to get to the bottom of this issue is if CNE would forecast separately their production guidance for both the tariff and non tariff oil (more honest). Perhaps the non Mirador reservoirs are slowing down in production necessitating the Mirador draw downs?
Ask yourself NOW why the farm-in with CZE and the takeover of Petrolera Monterrico SA.
I think CNE is fortunate in that they will not only survivor but become a leading player in oil in Colombia near term. But likely once CNE has swallowed enough small fish then the bigger fish will swallow CNE.