TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
STVPon Dec 04, 2011 6:26am
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Post# 19290129
RE: STVP
RE: STVPI'm definitely not trying to pump FED over AAA or vice versa, I like both. Neither would I say sell AAA and buy FED or vice versa as both are trading at extremely low prices due to general markets falling since summer. This Ethiopia Potash Basin will be the next big supply basin to hit the world markets and help keep prices around the $500 per tonne mark that makes Indian farmers happy (of course there will be pressure to move price higher by Canpotex but I think it would be bad for farmers so we need to find the right equilibrium, some where around $500 per tonne). Both AAA and FED would be very profitable with prices around $500 per tonne, but you can't say the same for the Saskatchewan players otherwise they will be paying forever to cover development costs for some of the new mines they are currently developing. AAA is certainly on it's route to having a producing mine (they will get financing, etc) and makes AAA a buy and hold for long term, you will certainly get a 20 bagger if you hold long enough. FED this week is finally going to release assay results that were sent to Saskatchewan lab instead of the South African lab that took forever to get results.
No one should be jealous of FED over AAA or vice versa, both will move the other higher on good news. AAA is further ahead and has strategic partners in place including the world bank and that's why I say they are most likely to go all the way and have a mine. FED on the other hand will most likely be taken out by BHP soon after they release a 43-101 report (FED has the most shallow deposit in the basin but their management to me don't seem like the type who wants to take it to production). Given that BHP was late in the basin and FED was early and stake out some of the best portions, BHP is coming after them in my opinion. Allana of course would also jump on such an announcement and therefore it wouldn't make sense for you to sell AAA and buy FED but rather own both. Even if you own a small % of FED, you will be rewarded -- it's never good to put all your eggs in one basket so I would suggest that for your potash position own at least 10% FED and 90% AAA split or what ever balance between the two makes you comfortable. I would certainly say that if you are bullish on the Ethiopian Potash space then don't just own AAA, own a little of FED because this has enormous upside when they start releasing results and they could be bought out as early as Q1 2012 (they even had to introduce a Poison Pill Strategy to discourage a hostile take over too quickly). I certainly don't foresee FED going to production like AAA will but you don't want to be left out when FED gets taken over. At least own a little, given your knowledge of the basin why would you not own a little of FED knowing they are the only ones with a shallow enough deposit to have open pit mining?