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United Protection Security Group Inc V.UZZ



TSXV:UZZ - Post by User

Comment by LoganCopper1on Dec 05, 2011 8:55am
162 Views
Post# 19291397

RE: NEWS!

RE: NEWS!To get an idea of how this could impact UZZ's bottom line, here are a few rough calc's.

Assume the contact is over a 2 year period --> 8 quarters

Sales: $2,500,000 per quarter. This is a 28% increase over Q3 sales revenue

Gross Margin: Assume 18% --> $450,000 per quarter. A 28% increase over Q3 Gross Margin

SG+A should not increase as a result of this contract. Lets assume that it cost UZZ 200,000 to secure this contract. SG+A as a % of quarterly sales decreased from 14% in Q3 to 12.5%.

EBITDAS for Q3 was $434k. Since I expect GM to be $450k, with SG+A of 200k (for one quarter only, Q4/11), I am going to forecast that EBITDAS for the coming quarters (lets say Q1 2012) will be north of $750,000. My Net Income will then be forecasted at $500,000.

Applying the same ridicuous P/E ratio (4.1 based on my previous posts), we will have $2,000,000 in Net Income for the year (2012) and assuming a P/E ratio of 4.1, will bring us to a market capitailization of $8.2MM.

On a per share share basis, the PPS (based on 65MM shares outstanding) should be roughly
.125 per share.


Thats what this contract should do for the stock, based on previous valuations (which IMO were ridiculous in the first place).

Don't trust my calc's, do them yourself!
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