Connacher Oil & Gas Ltd CLLZF

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Bitumen Pricing..close

[rehsifylf]

Lets say that the expansion ramps to 20K bpd - that ~7.5MM bpy.  Life is probably 25 years or 187M bbls of Bitumen.  Netback after operating costs and sustaining capital is conservaticely $20-25 at todays prices.  Half of that would be about $94M/year.  That seems like a pretty fair return for an investment of $600-700M.

That said - I just can't see why anyone with enough cash would want the complexity of a JV, when they can have it all very easily for a small premium.  Likely CLL is holding firm that they don't want to sell the works, but for the right price - I can see them doing it.

In any event, the worm has turned here.  The rise in oil prices, combined with the fact that CLL has demonstrated that it can remian solvent for as long as it takes, means that it has gone from a buyer's market to a seller's market in a matter of one month.

Volume over 3M shares on Alpha and 1.6M on TSX in first hour of trading.

Lips are pretty tight in Ctown - but rumour is that more than one NA company had a look at the data room.  Not just China and India that are interested in boosting reserves.