Mira has options beyond dilutionLet's talk technical first (and then I don't mean TA...)
Today's NR was worse than I expected, I was hoping they would be able to flow the well long enough at high enough rates to be able to say something about skin and permeability, allowing them back-calculate what an undamaged well would produce. Apparently, the +30 years with mud has left a skin which I estimate to be >100 and thus reducing flow with ~90%. I think it might have been a mistake to perforate such a large section of the well, since the effectiveness of the clean-up is dependent on the flow rate per perforated length, and the "available" pressure in the reservoir was"spent" over a larger interval. However, as I mentioned before, the lack of a successful flow test in an old, damaged well has no implications for other future wells, the only real damage here is the extra costs they will have in the putting this well into production, and the lower flow rate they will get out (from a non-market perspective, obviously)
As for the other info in the NR, I like the talk about de-risking the other zones, basically what they are saying is that since U7 had oil and was flowing, other parts of the well with a similar log response are also likely to flow oil (and not water).
But what happened with flowing the U4 oil zone? Did they just decide to skip that? My understanding was that U4 level was less affected by the heavy mud used during Shell's kick, and therefore it would have flowed better.
Leaving the technical stuff, allow me to speculate a bit about things to come. Clearly, at these levels, I don't think it is in the best interest of any share holders to do a PP. I think they will wait until the new 51-101 has been updated, and hope that will bring some support.
Another possibility could be that the Chairman, mr Asibelua, could somehow raise capital in a less dilutive way, given the fact that he seems quite wealthy and connected. If I was in his position, I surely would not let a bunch of North American broker houses pull down my pants and dilute me out of all my Nigerian oil...
Finally, I agree with previous posters that MMT could be a possible suitor, but why not also Afren or Addax? The value proposition here must surely be too compelling for this just to dwindle into oblivion, even in these markets...?
Just my 5 cents,
Darcy