the numbersdoing some homework tonight on nae's numbers in comparison to other former trusts.
enterprise value/debt adjusted cashflow
(1) baytex, 10.8
(2) crescent point, 9.4
(3) peyto, 8.1
(4) daylight, 7.5 (in aug when the shareprice was around $9 the ev/dacf was 6.1)
(5) pengrowth, 7.3
(6) pennwest, 6.5
(7) nae, 5.8
(8) pmt, 5.6
(9) pbn, 4.3
net debt/cashflow
(1) crescent point, 0.8
(2) baytex, 1.1
(3) peyto, 1.4
(4) pengrowth, 1.8
(5) pennwest, 2.1
(6) nal energy, 2.3 (estimated to be 1.8 for 2012)
(7) daylight, 2.4
(8) pbn, 3.3 (estimated 2.6 for 2012)
(9) pmt, 5.9
kind of disheartening to see nae lumped in there with perpetual energy using ev/dacf. however, when you look at the net debt to cashflow metric, it becomes evident that nae, in no way, belongs in the same group as perpetual, imo.
price to cashflow 2011/2012
(1) baytex, 11.7 / 10.4
(2) crescent point, 10.1 / 9
(3) peyto, 9.6 / 7.1
(4) daylight, 6.5 / 6 (was 6 and 4.6 in august)
(5) pennwest, 5.9 / 4.8
(6) nae, 5.7 / 4.5 (probably a little less now as these numbers where taken from the november cibc report when the shareprice was $9ish)
(7) pengrowth, 5.6 / 6.3
(8) pbn, 2.8 / 2.2
(9) perpetual, 2.2 / 2.1
baytex and crescent point trading at a premium cuz they are clearly the best run companies with great assets. perpetual and pbn trading at deep discounts to their nav cuz their debt is so high. perpetual, i think is dying a slow death, unless they get bought out, and pbn, i think, will leverage their great assets and production growth to climb outta their hole.
cashflow % increase from 2011 to 2012
(1) peyto, 35%
(2) pbn, 28%
(3) nae, 28%
(4) pwt, 15%
(5) crescent point, 12%
(6) baytex, 12%
(7) daylight, 8%
(8) perpetual, 2%
(9) pengrowth, negative
here is the hope for nae. pretty good growth expected next year and beyond. not that I think nae will cut their div but its nice to see with these 2012 numbers the div should be solidified and shareprice should stabilize if oil stays above $80 and markets dont tank.