GREY:MLKKF - Post by User
Comment by
LongonZincon Dec 08, 2011 1:02pm
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Post# 19304022
RE: RE: Next buyout...ML
RE: RE: Next buyout...MLNot sure what show you boys are watching but it is entirely different than me. What I see is a company that is struggling to generate minimal cash flow at decent metal prices. I see that it cost around double to build the mine and that cost shareholders almost everything through massive dilution. The processing plant and metal sales are costing more than double what was projected. They burned through all of their highest grade copper in order to not go belly up, they also cooked the books IMO to not default on their notes. While complete failure and bankruptcy are not certain, it is a very real possibility (50/50). Look at the most recent cash cost to produce, ML is among the highest cost producers on earth. With copper above $4 and moly at $18 it looks okay, but if copper slips below $2.85 and moly below 12.50 or so, then how do they service their massive debt, if you turn out the lights, then what do you think happens with those who bought forward ML's silver production, they will not be able to survive a short-term shut down. Also, do you know what the cash sweep provisions of the last loan are or were? While they have fixed many of the major issues, such as metal recoveries, you have to look at the costs to do this, they have produced more shares and debt than anything else. And remember what the CEO said, that they would meet or exceed the FS operating parameters, he failed to say at >2x the estimated cash costs.