RE: Rio/BHP Cu production and ETG future
You're right about the value of the JV interests being dependant on the timing.
There are many reasons to suspect the "proposed" mining scenarios made public to date have purposefully exaggerated delays in mining HNE. Why? Because the grades are so high and the ore is concentrated in a small area, while the lift capacity of the mine in the initial few years is restricted, and the development and set-up of drawbells phase of the block caving will take some time, whereas they might start a sublevel stope mine at HNE and begin extraction much faster.
RioT and IVN have no intention of pumping the value of an asset they want to buy. But economic practicality may drive them to make a favorable deal sooner rather then later - they have a huge investment to recoup, and you're right about Mongolian uncertainties making things dicey - all the more reason once they can start mining they will go after the low hanging fruit as soon as possible.
It is a speculative point of view to be sure, no promises from me, but I'm pretty convinced personally - RioT and the Mongolians don't want to give any indication they are hot to trot on the JV - but economically it may make sense because even net of a 20% share to ETG the NSR's are still better than anywhere else in the project, the rock is that good. Plus, the prospect of expansion of the reserves at HNE has been completely stifled.
There is a reason RioT took such a close interest in ETG, put their chum Lord Howard on the Board.
If Ann Mason is icing on the cake, great. If there are positive results from the 100% ground, great. If a deal could be swung to have a different major partner brought in to develop Heruga and ultimately help shoulder the cost of a smelter and power plant, great. But the bottom line is the richest ore is from the JV line North, it has remained open along strike and at depth for five years now ... go figure.
Perhaps next year we may learn much more ... next stop in this story will be the arbitration decision and whether IVN can wrangle a control premium or set RioT up against other bidders - although, seems Mongolia has its dance partner in RioT, so we're just watching a wrangle over price. If IVN's rights plan gets the thumbs-up in the next week or so, you might guess it will pop the SP. Maybe even a little overflow on the suffocated and drowning ETG.
CG