GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Post by
nachochipon Dec 13, 2011 9:13pm
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Post# 19319617
2012 Capex
2012 CapexThe 2012 Capex seems really strange to me...only 49 Cardium wells planned for 2012 after what...90 drilled in 2011.
My question is...why so little in 2012 in the Cardium when in 2011 the Cardium is basically where all the production growth was and I think on a per well basis the Cardium wells produce better over a year versus Bakken? Also why so few new venture Alberta exploratory wells planned in 2012 when it looks like 2011 drilling unlocked 100 new locations?
Yes, I realize PBN has limited capital but still...why so much in Sask compared to higher growth in Alberta, plus won't water be a problem in Q2 and Q3 again in Sask when things unfreeze....Cpg is planning around this.
If I was to speculate...I would guess Alberta Capex is quite low because they must have jv plans...only way to explain it.
Curious to what other people on this board think.
BUT...big but here guys...is 49 wells in 2012 enough wells to keep the Cardium at 16,000 barrels in 2012?? Remember, alot of Cardium production that currently makes up that 14-16k, was tied in within last 4-5 months of 2011...so declines in the Cardium should be quite great in Q1 of 2012. Well be interesting if, 49 wells drilled in Cardium will be enough to overcome this......
My gut tells me it might be enough, but I think they will really need to stagger and tie in those wells at a steady pace over 12 months.....if the majority of those 49 wells are tied in...in the last 2Q's of 2012....Q1 ands Q2 for 2012 will not be good as expected in my opinion...I guess we will see.
Look I am not negative...I think PBN has done some good things since July..but I would have like press release to tell more info...like how many wells are currently..drilled and frac'ed..but not tied in....THAT IS very key...for Q1.
Q1 production numbers worry me abit if our inventory of wells not tied in is low...if we have a big invenotry of wells drilled and fraced....then we should be okay.
Well I think things are definitely better for PBN, I do not think we are out of the woods yet and will have the shorts back off...just yet. I think Q1 could still be dicey productionwise......would be nice if company gave us more visibility on Q1..like how many wells are planned to be drilled and tied in..for Q1....
Would also be nice if todays presentation or press release...told more progress on a potential debt faciltiy increase.
Yes, things are beter but I do not think we should celebrate just yet...remember it is not like PBN has had consistent quarters of over 47K...Q4 will be our first time...we need to be able to carry this on for Q1 and Q2 of 2012 in our to have the cashflow...... Really I think PBN needs to start giving estimates of average production per year versus this estimated year end exit rate thing they keep doing. CPG does and most companies of size do....time to get serious.