FCF projection for 2012Management estimate they can produce 4000bpd by year end and 6'000bpd by next summer. So I will take 5'500bpd average production for 2012.
As they don't have PSC they have to sell it at domestic market so domestic oil price. Max petroleum says that domestic price in Kazak is 50% of brent price. So if we take today brent price domestic oil price is at $55 a barrel. When you sell on local market you don't have taxes, they are making $41.84 netback.
if we apply this to TPL we should have a Cash Flow of around 5'500*41.84*365= $84 millions
We will be producing at least net 1000bpd in 2012 from our tajik asset. Here our netback is easily at $50 a barrel so you add $18 million cash flow
I consider the CF from our natural gas play in Kazak is 0 regarding the low price in Kazak.
So overall we should have a cash flow of more than $100 millions in 2012.
Our market value is at $150 millions so at 1.5 times operational cash flow. That is quite ridiculous. Even more if we take into consideration all the potential from the tajik land and Doris and Kalypso....... I have huge position at 47.5 cents average price and very confident about our future.
I don't see another financing now. Our operational cash flow should be sufficient......
GLTA
Julien
Any comments ???