predicting pricesby any measure is a fool's errand. IF you ask me what PMT might be worth as a bolt on acquisition... I think that 2.5 -3X current share price might be fair given the debt they would have to "eat" and simply because anyone buying would look at parting out a great many of Shammy's "money makers" in order to achieve the discount anyone would need to manage the debt PMT has accumulated. IF PMT survives the 1st and 2nd qtr intact... they may have a chance at reducing debt... again depending on whether they can unload a couple of asset packages...
OF course unloading assets is a double edged sword...it can help the bottom line in the short term...but ultimately it reduces potential growth by reducing drilling inventory and reserves... the 2 major metrics by which an O&G company is measured with respect to performance.
As a primer to learning what you need to know and what metrics are important with respect to what the "street" looks to...read all the corporate reports the Seniors put out... reserve replacement, drilling inventory, 2 p reserves, G&A /BOE...F&D/BOE... typically the seniors operate in an atmosphere where money is no object...IF they need a couple of hundred million to prove up a play... they go about their business quickly and quietly... they operate in an ideal world...and don't have much difficulty "telling it like it is"... where juniors and intermediates have to be much more conscious about the news they put out...and how they "spin' it...they focus on things like "netback" and production mix ratios... which really don't mean a whole lot but can sound real good...
for example.. say a company's asset mix is 95% NG 5% oil & NGL... and for ease we'll say... 95 BOE/d gas and 5 BOE/d OIl & NGL... so the company drills 1 well and gets an additional 5 BOED/ liquids... in effect they can now report that they have DOUBLED liquids production...in the meantime they have stopped drilling (replacing) their gas production and the fall off in the same period was 5 BOE/d NG and now they can say that their asset mix is now 90% NG and 10% oil &NGL an amazing 5% increase in liquids...
are the seniors guilty of spin??? of course...but the spin they are concerned with is more about Public relations rather than production metrics....anyway...
do as you choose...
as always it's my opinion git yer own.