RE: RE: RE: Cost Structure in FTP favour I agree fundamPhil,
I wasn't suggesting this was my 2012 estimate. That's why I didn't label it as such. Just tyring to show a few things based on production capacity:
1) FTP should remain nicely profitable through the down cycle as their cost of production is significantly less than the majority of their competitors.
2) Sustained low DP prices should constrain supply enough to move the price back upwards. If Chad can continue adding low cost producers (as he's suggested that he can) then they should gain market share during these times.
3) From most of the data that I've read, I believe overall demand for Rayon has got no where to go but up in the coming decade.
4) The highest cost of production comes from the Cotton Linters. Around ($1200/MT). I would suggest this is where the floor price in FTP's contracts comes from. The Rayon producers are aware of the high demand and realize that the current supply from Cotton Linters in needed in the market at the moment. In order for them to be profitable and stay in business the price needs to exceed $1200/MT on average. This may come in the form of $1000/MT for a while followed by $1400/MT for a while. In other words if I'm a Chinese Rayon producer I'm comfortable with a $1200 floor over a 5 year period because I don't expect the price to average less than that over that time frame. I also want to ensure that I lock up supply from the low cost producers in the market. High cost producers may get knocked out of the game over time. Low cost producers survive in a commodity business.
I really think the market is being shortsighted at the moment. But hey, it's not the first time. In my own valuation work I keep coming to a number around $63/share. It's important to note that around 2/3rds of that value is from Thurso. That number would go up significantly if Chad is able to acquire another mill with similar economics. Not only do I believe that Chad is close on acquiring another mill but I also believe the market is rype for pre-selling the output again. Especially having proven is first conversion successful.
Cheers,
belowiv